Referring to Inquirer former editor John Nery in his piece today “The opposition’s narrow, viable path”, I agree with the narrow but where’s the viability? Nery’s prognosis banks on the imagined gravitas he imagines is lent by the usual suspects to the Yellowidiots’ “cause”…
At the Media and Politics Forum my class hosted last Friday, former senator Sonny Trillanes had occasion to speak of “true believers,” who in his view made him win in his first and improbable run for the Senate, in 2007. He was detained at that time, and he was allowed by the courts to entertain media interviews only in the second month of the 90-day campaign, but in his view, that exposure gave his true believers something to capitalize on, and brought him victory. This make-or-break quality of a political campaign is a true milestone in the path to victory, and it starts at the top. Robredo, or Drilon, must be true believers in the opposition’s presidential prospects, too.
Unfortunately for them it is math, not “true belief”, that ultimately wins elections. Let’s do the electoral math, shall we?
If it’s a Leni Robredo – Franklin Drilon ticket then safe to say Region 5 and 6 are theirs for the taking. Luzon has the largest number of votes. If Inday Sara runs, former Senator Bongbong Marcos is out of the picture but the need to win Luzon means he’s the top pick for Vice-President. That’s the Ilokano speaking provinces there already up to Tarlac. Region 3 and 4 may be split but not equally. It depends on who the political kingpins in the region will bless. The Pinedas are allies of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo (GMA). The same with Quezon. Laguna and Batangas may be split but more with the latter not the former which is Nacionalista. Region 4-A might be split as well. Region 7 is administration along with Region 8.
Mindanao is for Davao City Mayor Inday Sara Duterte’s taking except for Bebot Alvarez’s bailiwicks but you can be sure Duterte will patch things up with an old friend to ensure victory. If Manila Mayor Isko Moreno runs, he will be breaking with GMA and ICTSI chair Enrique K Razon (EKR) and go solo with Manny Pangilinan (MVP). What political party will they use? Senate slate? Local government unit (LGU) support? Isko will take away votes from Robredo-Drilon, not the other way around. Where then is the viability that Nery speaks of? Region 5 may not even be solid because Albay 2nd District Representative Joey Salceda is openly for Inday.
I’m sticking to my earlier forecast that the only way the opposition has a chance is if GMA breaks with the administration coalition but it will not be to join forces with the opposition. GMA has unfinished business of an economic nature not political. She is the key to 2022.